The outlook for the next ten months remains highly uncertain given the increasing number of factors that can change the dynamics with some disastrous scenarios becoming more plausible.
The markets during the pandemic and the subsequent recovery have been battered by logistic issues, production problems, and a surge in demand.
The surge in gas added more fuel at the end of last year, only to be accentuated bqy the war at the end of February. This heightened uncertainty and unpredictability makes any forecast highly challenging, even for next month let alone for next year.
A rollover is the most probable scenario in May, with expectations that lower gas demand in the spring will lead to lower energy prices and together with the lower demand because of the high prices, a relative shallow downward trend will ensue toward the summer.
Later in the year and during the first months of next year, prices are set to remain supported by expectations of increase in energy prices as demand increases for gas during the winter.
Should signs emerge that inflation is starting to impact downstream markets, then the forecast will be adjusted accordingly. And equally if the war takes a turn for the worse and threatens gas supplies then there will be an upward revision.