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Macroeconomics and Geopolitics

EURO AREA INFLATION STABLE AT 2.4%
restructuring

EURO Area inflation stable. In April 2024, annual inflation in the euro area remained stable at 2.4%, matching March’s rate.

The EU’s annual inflation was also steady at 2.6%, compared to 2.6% in March.

This data, published by Eurostat, highlights a significant decrease from last year’s rates of 7.0% in the euro area and 8.1% in the EU.

Stable inflation is likely to support consumer demand for finished products made from polymers such as ABS, PC, and PA.

Lower inflation will also reinforce expectations of lower interest rates, further boosting demand for these polymers.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IMPROVE, OECD NOTES
market dynamics

Global economic prospects improve. Recent OECD data indicates modest growth. Despite tighter monetary policies impacting housing and credit, global activity remains resilient. Falling inflation is also boosting private sector confidence.

OECD Economist Highlights Positive Economic Trends

“Inflation’s decline is raising real incomes and unemployment remains low,” says the OECD’s lead economist. He notes that a balanced labor market and improving trade are bolstering these trends.

Global GDP Expected to Stabilize by 2025

A 3.2% global GDP growth rate is anticipated for 2025, amidst global challenges. “This rate matches our potential growth projections for both developed and emerging markets,” the economist adds.

Challenges and Opportunities in 2023 Inflation Trends

Restrictive monetary policies and lower energy costs reduced 2023 inflation. Yet, the economist points out, services sector inflation remains high.

AI Could Significantly Boost Productivity

The OECD sees AI as a catalyst for productivity and innovation. “AI’s economic impact will hinge on its widespread adoption and labor productivity enhancement,” the economist states.

Advice for Policymakers from the OECD

Cautious monetary policies should continue, but there may be room to lower rates as inflation eases. Strong fiscal policies are essential to manage debt and address economic challenges.

OECD Advocates for Stronger Structural Policies

To ensure long-term growth and improved living standards, investing in innovation, technology, and skills is essential. “These efforts are key for a sustainable, green transition,” the economist concludes.

EU INFLATION EASES IN JANURY 2024
inflation

EU inflation eases in January 2024. The region saw a slight decrease in the inflation rate, according to Eurostat.

The eurozone saw inflation settling at 2.8%, a minor dip from December’s 2.9%.

This marks a significant decline from the 8.6% observed a year prior.

The broader European Union experienced a similar trend, with inflation easing to 3.1% from December’s 3.4%.

This represents a notable decrease from the previous year’s 10%.

The lowest inflation figures were recorded in several countries including Denmark and Italy, both at 0.9%, along with Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland, each at 1.1%. On the higher end, Romania, Estonia, and Croatia reported the most substantial inflation rates.

The main contributors to the eurozone’s inflation were identified as services, followed by food, alcohol & tobacco, and non-energy industrial goods, whereas energy prices exerted a downward pressure.

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT GROWS IN DECEMBER 2023
industrial produciton

Industrial output grows in December. Industrial output experienced a significant rise of 2.6% in both the eurozone and the European Union (EU) in December 2023.

Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical authority, reports these figures against those from November 2023.

This comes after a modest increase of 0.4% in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU during November 2023.

Comparing December 2023 to the same month in the previous year, there was a 1.2% increase in industrial production across both the euro area and the EU.

However, when looking at the entirety of 2023, the average industrial production declined by 2.4% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU, in comparison with the year 2022.

EU GDP STABLE WHILE JOBS GROW
gdp

EU GDP stable while jobs see grow. In the final quarter of 2023, the gross domestic product (GDP) showed no change in the eurozone.

At the same time, there was a slight 0.1% uptick in the European Union (EU), as revealed by preliminary figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical department.

This modest growth in GDP for both the euro area and the EU follows a slight contraction of 0.1% experienced by both regions in the third quarter of 2023.

Job numbers were on the rise in both the euro area and the EU, with employment rates increasing by 0.3%. This demonstrates an upward trend in job creation alongside stable economic growth.

These preliminary estimates offer an early look at the economic health of the euro area and EU.

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