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PC: tariff disputes increase downside risks

May 7, 2019

Source: GC Intelligence

London (GC Intelligence) — Polycarbonate global fundamentals in 2019 could weaken further as US/China trade dispute takes a turn for the worse.

The latest developments could place further pressure on the market and restart the downward trend in prices.

Prices for all grades but particularly for extrusion polycarbonate have been under pressure from low demand since the end of 2018 and new capacity in China was set to lengthen the market further in 2019.

The US/China dispute was close to a breakthrough in May, likely to have revived demand and stop further price decreases. But the situation turned sour after Trump tweeted that 10% on $200bn of Chinese imports will go up to 25%.

The tariff dispute started at the end of 2018 and was one of the reasons why demand decreased, rapidly turning the market tightness into an oversupply which has continued since.

While the tweets could be tactical and part of the negotiations, downside risks on polycarbonate prices, which were set to remain relatively flat in 2019, have certainly worsened.

Source: GC Intelligence