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PBT: forecast revised down on lower demand

February 7, 2019

GC Intelligence (London) — The latest Polybutylene Terephthalate (PBT) price forecast was revised down and is at risk of further downward adjustments. There is a good chance that prices will fall further than the decreases forecast in Q2 and Q3. The downward corrections assume that the subdued demand and costs and increasing competition from imports will remain in place throughout the forecast period. A price rollover in Q1 has not fully reflected the current and ongoing slowdown, and therefore its full effect on prices will most likely emerge in the next round of negotiations. There is little to suggest a recovery and instead most of the data and news point to a probable worsening situation, which could mean prices could drop further than what is suggested by the current forecast. The trade war between China and the US, arguably the trigger of this slowdown, seems to be getting worse. The automotive sector is suffering from the added troubles concerning the new emissions tests and a decrease in diesel car sales. And aside from what looks like a disastrous Brexit, the Italian economy seems to have entered a recession, which could be viewed as a precursor to a wider global slowdown in 2019. Participants are now waiting for the end of the Chinese New Year holiday at the end of February and will be monitoring how demand develops in the following weeks. Meanwhile, as the tariff dispute seems to be getting worse, there is a good chance that the Chinese economy may not experience a strong, or even any revival in demand.

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